Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim 78%
Qualidade do mercado
32 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
775,4 €
Baixa liquidezTraders
9
Comments
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
Tendências
Regras
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Comparacao de fontes de previsao
Referencia CoinRithm 47% · 2 plataformas · 31 pt de dispersao entre venues
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- A Futuur cota Yes em 78% em 25 de agosto de 2026.
- Quando Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? é resolvido?
- Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? é liquidado?
- A Futuur liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- Onde mais Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em ForecastEx, Manifold Markets.
