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KalshiRegras
This event predicts whether the United States will experience an economic recession at any point during calendar year 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be a formal recession determination issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- If the NBER officially determines that the United States entered a recession that includes any period in 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Recessions are not defined solely by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but by a significant decline in economic activity across multiple indicators, as assessed by the NBER.
- If the NBER announces a recession but determines it began and ended entirely outside of 2026, this market will resolve to "No".