By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
One-OffIAMacro e economia1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 69.6%
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Desatualizado1/08/26, 16:26 UTC2/01/28, 07:59 UTC
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- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
