Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
InflationOne-OffEconomieEquitiesBusiness & CorporateSociety & Culture2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 58.6%
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198
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
14 feb 26, 17:26 UTC14 feb 29, 17:23 UTC
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Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
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KalshiRegels
Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )
- Let's say that they did agree under those original conditions.
- Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.
- This resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.
- This resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.
- Bet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)