Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 02:41 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 80%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd14 mrt 26, 13:09 UTC30 jun 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
