Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd14 mrt 26, 13:09 UTC30 jun 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Kalshi reduce its taker fees in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the s&p500 trade below 6,100 this year? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWill Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRegels
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 90,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,4 mln.
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 358,6K
- 24u volume
- € 35,8K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 548,3K
- 24u volume
- € 28,8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 79,8K
- 24u volume
- € 7,6K
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.0pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.6%
- 0.1%-3.0pt9.6%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- CPI core in August
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI-U index in August
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] afgewikkeld?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] wordt naar verwachting op 30 juni 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- Waar wordt Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Kalshi.