Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
InflatieOne-OffMacro en economieEconomieHandelsbeleidAandelenGeopolitiek2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.7%
Voorspellers
32
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 24 minuten geleden
3 apr 25, 11:45 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Macrogevoelige Assets
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Manifold MarketsRegels
In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
- Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed.
- However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025.
- Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
