Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffEconomieMacro en economieAandelenAmerikaanse politiekBedrijfslevenHandelsbeleid2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.5%
Voorspellers
33
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd10 jan 26, 06:42 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
