Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffEconomieMacro & EconomyEquitiesUS PoliticsBusiness & CorporateTrade Policy3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 91%
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Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 minuten geleden
10 jan 26, 06:42 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
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Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in Nov 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
Open markten
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 34,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,6 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.5%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 543,8K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.9pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.6pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts1%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 7,6 mln.
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Us market crash in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 91% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Us market crash in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Us market crash in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Us market crash in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution Criteria