Society & Culture | Voorspellingsmarkten

Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)

Saint Lucia

93.1%

Niue

89.9%

Sri lanka

69.2%

+65 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling37 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

5% more men than women in the US by 2055?

28j

Nee

80.2%

19.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling9 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is Earth flat?

5mnd

Nee

98%

56 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 51,7K

24u volumeUS$ 101,1

POLYMARKET

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Nee

96.8%

3.2%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling67 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Nee

92.9%

7.1%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling101 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

5mnd

Nee

89.9%

10.1%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling38 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Major news story in Jul 2026?

1.0%6d

At least 1

97%

At least 2

-1.0%8%

At least 3

-1.0%5%

+2 extra uitkomsten

56 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 48,2K

24u volumeUS$ 221

KALSHI

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Nee

52.1%

47.9%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling3.478 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will something happen in 2026?

5mnd

95%

Nee

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling164 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2026?

5mnd

94.4%

Nee

5.6%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling39 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)

35j

2061 or later

29.2%

2041-2060

19%

2031-2040

12.6%

+12 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling13 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I burnout by the end of 2026?

5mnd

Nee

75.5%

24.5%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling9 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Destiny sue anyone?

9mnd

Nee

54.5%

45.5%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling9 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

5mnd

Nee

95.4%

4.6%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling62 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

55%

Nee

45%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling151 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?

5mnd

Nee

83.4%

16.6%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling6 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

165j

Nee

89%

11%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling61 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Nee

58%

42%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling216 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Nee

96%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling54 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Harry Kane Knighted in 2026

1.0%5mnd

Nee

82%

+1.0%18%

52 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadGemiddelde liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 12,5K

24u volumeUS$ 282,6

KALSHI

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Nee

62.7%

37.3%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling101 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

5mnd

Nee

94.1%

5.9%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling25 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ]

2mnd

Nee

93%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling102 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Nee

81.2%

18.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling118 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI?

Nee

94.9%

5.1%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling35 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

10j

55.4%

Nee

44.6%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling96 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Donald Trump have gay sex?

5mnd

Nee

95.2%

4.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling49 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

APUSH cheater prop bets

5mnd

gets in any kind of trouble

55.2%

has it p1

53.6%

is female

53.3%

+12 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling39 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

2028 or later

+0.6%73.6%

2027

-0.4%15.2%

2026

-0.2%7.9%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling9 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the One Piece manga reach over 1400 chapters?

88.6%

Nee

11.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling82 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the price of private education in Japan be cheaper in 5 years?

53.8%

Nee

46.2%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling14 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

Nee

72.3%

27.7%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling96 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

8mnd

94.6%

Nee

5.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling97 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?

Nee

90.9%

9.1%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling25 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I major in math?

Nee

89.9%

10.1%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling47 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?

5mnd

Nee

89.6%

10.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling21 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Voynich manuscript be deciphered by 2030? 📖🔎⁉️

Nee

82.6%

17.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling81 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen before King Charles III dies? [Add Answers!]

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

100%

Someone becomes a trillionaire

100%

The United Kingdom holds a general election

87.3%

+8 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling28 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Bobby Fischer be discovered to still be alive before 2030?

Nee

98.4%

1.6%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling29 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Caroline Ellison next job

5mnd

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

57.6%

Fraudster

50%

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

50%

+10 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling25 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)

5mnd

Nee

93.6%

6.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling7 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

7978j

Other

+0.1%16.5%

Elon Musk

+0.1%13%

Bill Gates

+0.3%12.5%

+97 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1.286 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Nee

98.2%

1.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling192 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will any western country deny women the vote in the 21st century?

74j

Nee

75.4%

24.6%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling20 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

5mnd

Nee

77%

23%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling40 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

10mnd

Nee

79%

21%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling35 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

62%

Nee

38%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling43 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Nee

94.1%

5.9%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling52 voorspellersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS