Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
EconomieOne-OffGeopolitiekEurope3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 68.1%
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Verouderd9 feb 26, 15:17 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Chancellor Friedrich Merz makes a public announcement by December 31, 2026 that Germany will increase defense spending to 3.0% of GDP.
- The announcement must be made by Merz himself (or an official statement from the German Chancellor's office) and must explicitly state a commitment to reach 3.0% of GDP in defense spending.
- Resolution sources include official German government statements, NATO announcements, or major international news outlets reporting on such an announcement.
- Germany's record €108.2 billion 2026 defense budget marks a historic shift, supporting a long-term Bundeswehr buildup and redefining Germany's role in European security and NATO.
- Germany only just met NATO's 2% GDP target in 2024, so this jump to ~2.8% by 2026 is unprecedented.
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,7K
- 24u volume
- € 10,7K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Totaal volume
- € 612,5K
- 24u volume
- € 6,9K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,3K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 68% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution Criteria