Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 82.6%
Voorspellers
15
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
30 jul 26, 13:44 UTC1 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsWill the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de).
- In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.
- Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President.
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 697,7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 471,3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria