Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 67.2%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd7 dec 25, 16:53 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Alice Weidel become next German chancellor before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier).
- Resolves YES if some or all AfD MPs vote for the winning Chancellor candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win (absolute majority in rounds 1–2, or plurality in round 3).
- Resolves NO if the Chancellor is elected without AfD votes, or if AfD votes for the winner but they would have won without them.
- Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on publicly available information (e.g., announced coalition agreements, party statements).
- In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.