Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 65.7%
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd7 dec 25, 16:53 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegels
Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier).
- Resolves YES if some or all AfD MPs vote for the winning Chancellor candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win (absolute majority in rounds 1–2, or plurality in round 3).
- Resolves NO if the Chancellor is elected without AfD votes, or if AfD votes for the winner but they would have won without them.
- Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on publicly available information (e.g., announced coalition agreements, party statements).
- In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.
Open markten
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 494,6K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 809,3K
- 24u volume
- € 123,4K
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 66% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support? afgewikkeld?
- Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier).