Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
13.0 ptn (24u)PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezingLatijns-Amerika1j
KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereistGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% 41.9%-13.0ptKoploper van 8 uitkomstenMarge-gecorrigeerd: de ruwe noteringen telden op tot boven 100% en zijn genormaliseerd.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% 41.9%-13.0ptMarktkwaliteit
67 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 13,3K
Open interest
€ 12,2K
Gemiddelde open interestSpread
4.0 pt
Gematigde spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
5 okt 26, 21:00 UTC25 okt 27, 14:00 UTC
Trends
Voorwaarden van het handelsplatform
Bron: Kalshi
Deze voorwaarden zijn ter informatie; voor gesimuleerd handelen bij CoinRithm gelden eigen regels.
- Vervroegde sluiting:
- Ja
- Afwikkelingstermijn:
- 30m (ter informatie)
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent
Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
PolymarketRegels
If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (votos válidos, excluding blank and null votes) received by the candidate named in the market minus the share received by the other candidate in the runoff if the named candidate wins, or the share of the candidate that finishes first if the named candidate loses. If the named candidate wins, the margin will be positive; if the named candidate loses, the margin will be negative; if the named candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Regels per uitkomst
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, 0-3%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 6% to 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, 3-6%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, 6-9%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 6% to 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.