Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd13 mrt 26, 03:45 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
New Mersenne Prime found before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIs M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- A new Mersenne prime is discovered in 2026 if the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) discovers a new Mersenne prime number and the discovery is officially announced by December 31, 2026.
- The discovery date is when the prime is first verified as prime, not when it is announced.
- Resolution will be confirmed via the official GIMPS website at https://www.mersenne.org/primes/ or official GIMPS press releases.
- The most recent Mersenne prime, 2^136279841-1, was discovered on October 21, 2024, with 41,024,320 digits, eclipsing the previous record by more than 16 million digits.
- This is only the 52nd known Mersenne prime ever discovered.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 230,8K
- 24u volume
- € 77,1K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 109,5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,9K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 83% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria