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Nee 92.9%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 20 uur geleden
Verouderd25 nov 22, 02:05 UTC31 dec 29, 05:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Severe nuclear accident in the Zaporizhzhia plant in 2026?
FutuurIAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.
- Close date updated to 2029-12-30 11:59 pm
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 227,4K
- 24u volume
- € 95,3K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 109,1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 8K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 93% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 afgewikkeld?
- Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.