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Dati al 9 set 2026, 10:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
June 30, 2027 11%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
70,5K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
3.4% / 3.7%
Spread
0.3 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
+0.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
24 lug 26, 15:51 UTC1 lug 27, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
KalshiRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States.
- Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position.
- Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
- Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Mercati aperti
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 34,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 543,5K €
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt90.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt8.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)2%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 44,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date??
- Polymarket quota June 30, 2027 al 11% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date??
- Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 luglio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.