Probabilità implicita attuale
September 18 87%+40.5ptIn testa tra 3 esiti
Qualità del mercato
36 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
921,7 €
Liquidità
816 €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
9.0 pt
Spread ampioCommenti
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
4 set 26, 00:18 UTC18 ott 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
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Manifold MarketsGeneration Starship By 2150
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
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- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date??
- Polymarket quota September 18 al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date??
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date? dovrebbe risolversi il 18 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).