Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 56.3%
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29
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
4 lug 26, 13:37 UTC31 lug 30, 18:30 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire
- (Gemini AI's Version)
- If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or its widely recognized equivalent certifies any individual's net worth at or above $2.0 Trillion (USD) at any point before July 1, 2030, will the Metaculus community consensus probability for a 'Generation Starship launch by 2150' close above 1.0% on July 31, 2030?
- Update 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the referenced Metaculus question is never asked, the market will resolve to NO.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Generation Starship By 2150?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Generation Starship By 2150?
- Generation Starship By 2150 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 luglio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Generation Starship By 2150?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire