Questo mercato si è risolto: September 21
Risolto: 21 set 2026, 18:20
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Esito Vincente
September 21
A 7 giorni
—
A 24 ore
20%
SorpresaAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 22 set 2026, 16:22 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Cronologia delle Probabilità
September 195%
September 250%
No release by September 3019%
September 170%
September 280%
September 2219%
September 21100%
September 230%
September 240%
September 270%
September 290%
September 300%
September 21Vinta
On or prior to September 9Persa
September 10Persa
September 11Persa
September 12Persa
September 13Persa
September 14Persa
September 15Persa
September 16Persa
September 17Persa
September 18Persa
September 19Persa
September 20Persa
September 22Persa
September 23Persa
September 24Persa
September 25Persa
September 26Persa
September 27Persa
September 28Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by which date?
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PolymarketWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessRegole
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
