Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.4%
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1
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto9 mar 26, 03:02 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Compute ratio for SOTA model training workloads by hardware architecture by EOY 2028
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Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
PolymarketRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The current SOTA model was released without safety evals is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
