Compute ratio for SOTA model training workloads by hardware architecture by EOY 2028
One-OffIATecnologia2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 17:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeCustom ASIC 62.9%In testa tra 3 esiti
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3
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto18 feb 26, 02:38 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
The ratio of compute (per FLOP) used for the flagship language models of the 10 leading companies/organizations at market close.
- Sources: company/lab announcements, consensus reporting
- (Hopefully) forward-compatible definitions:
- GPU: a general-purpose CPU specialized to handle embarassingly parallel workload tasks
- FPGA: an ASIC that implements logic gates through a reprogrammable medium (currently, LUTs and routing fabric), meaning the logic can be cost-effectively modified after finishing manufacturing, at a price at least one OOM less than manufacturing a new one.
- ASIC (excluding FPGAs): a non-reprogrammable IC that directly implements logic that would normally be handled at the programming-language layer in a CPU directly in the digital logic.