Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 90.7%
Previsori
28
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto25 giu 25, 20:25 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028?
Manifold MarketsSaudi Arabia military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketEuropean military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2029, either the United States or Israel attempts to detonate a nuclear device in an offensive capacity targeting Iranian territory.
- Resolution will be based on a combination of the following sources that collectively provide compelling evidence of such an event:
- - Official government statements from the US, Israeli, or Iranian governments.
- - Credible news reporting from media organizations.
- - International bodies' reports, including those from the United Nations, IAEA, or CTBTO.
Mercati aperti
Middle EastPOLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Volume totale
- 58,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 260,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt56.1%
- October 3131.8%
- September 30-2.0pt10.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt19%
- October 31-1.0pt10%
- September 30-1.5pt2%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+1.3pt53.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-2.0pt28.9%
- Naftali Bennett9.3%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027+2.0pt63%
- December-5.5pt41%
- October+6.0pt27%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 202968%
- Before Jul 1, 202868%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+3.0pt58%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 19,9 Mln €
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 91% al 18 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029??
- Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria: