Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Medio OrienteOne-OffTecnologiaCinaEuropaIARussia / UcrainaRegolamentazionePolitica USA8m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 50%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto17 lug 26, 11:52 UTC29 giu 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
In June 2026, a US Commerce Department export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, producing a 19-day global outage before controls were lifted on June 30.
- This market asks whether the mechanism fires again in near future for the same or different frontier models.
- Resolves YES if:
- between market creation and June 30, 2027, ALL of the following occur:
- Government-mandated.
- A US government body orders or legally compels a US-based AI developer to suspend or restrict access to one of its models.