Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 83.3%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto23 ago 26, 19:23 UTC30 giu 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsHow will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F
Manifold MarketsWill the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Initiative #25-0024A1 (2026 Billionaire Tax Act) pass in California in 2026?
ForecastExWhen will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the federal "Frontier Risk Oversight, National Transparency, Independent Evaluation, and Reporting Act" (commonly known as the FRONTIER Act, introduced as H.R. 9925 in the 119th Congress, or any substantially similar federal legislation under the same name or serving as its direct successor) is enacted into law by the United States federal government on or before July 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Enacted into law" requires that the bill is signed by the President of the United States, is passed over a presidential veto, or otherwise becomes law through constitutional processes.
- If no such federal legislation is enacted into law by the deadline, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for the status of the legislation is the official United States Congress tracking page at Congress.gov.
- Note: California's state-level "Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act" (SB 53), which was signed into law in September 2025, does not satisfy the resolution of this market.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027??
- Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 giugno 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria