Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik??

Manifold Markets quota No al 62% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik??

Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.

One-OffScienza3a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 62%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 16 ore fa

Obsoleto

6 gen 23, 20:35 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Lemme shamelessly capitalize on my Above The Fold shoutout by making a market about my school and nice numbers.

Resolves YES if the next nice number that I learn of (according to the criteria in the market below, though it may occur after that one ends) is discovered by a current or former member of Proof School.
(Some, including @JoshuaB, are working hard!) Resolves NO if it is found by someone else.
I will extend this market indefinitely until another nice number is found.
Be warned that this market may never resolve.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/will-i-learn-of-a-nice-number-besid-c68dd57dfc1) General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.