Previsione della comunità attuale
No 53.4%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto27 ott 25, 22:32 UTC8 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWill South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government completes its full 4-year term from 2025 to 2029.
- The market resolves NO if the government dissolves before the end of 2029, triggering early elections or a change in the governing coalition through other constitutional means.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the German Federal President or Bundestag regarding the dissolution of parliament or a change in government.
- The 2025 election took place seven months ahead of schedule due to the 2024 collapse of the Scholz governing coalition.
- On 9 April 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD secured a ruling coalition agreement, and the German parliament elected Friedrich Merz as chancellor on 6 May 2025.
Mercati aperti
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 494,6K €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 809,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 123,4K €
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 altri esiti
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 53% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term??
- Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? dovrebbe risolversi il 8 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria