Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

One-OffForeign Exchange6m

PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione

Probabilità implicita attuale

Sì 19%

Qualita del mercato

49 / 100

Bassa qualità

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidità

14,1K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Spread moderato

Variazione 7g

-2.0%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 2 minuti fa

3 dic 25, 17:2631 dic 26, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes19%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

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Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

One-OffForeign Exchange6m

PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione

Probabilità implicita attuale

Sì 19%

Qualita del mercato

49 / 100

Bassa qualità

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidità

14,1K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Spread moderato

Variazione 7g

-2.0%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 2 minuti fa

3 dic 25, 17:2631 dic 26, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes19%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

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334,3 €

Sì: 12%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

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291,1 €

It will be called “Claude Mythos” on release: 0%

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149,9 €

Japan: 35%

KALSHI

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,663.61+1.88%

EthereumETH$1,652.22+1.30%

SolanaSOL$65.11+0.89%

XRPXRP$1.12-0.32%

BNBBNB$595.32+1.32%

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.11%

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Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”