PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 86%-1.0pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
11K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
13.0% / 16.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
4
Variazione 7g
+2.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
3 dic 25, 17:17 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
Manifold MarketsThe current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Manifold MarketsSmallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiEURUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
- A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
- If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
- If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
Mercati aperti
Foreign ExchangeKALSHIUSD/JPY price on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 153.500 to 153.74979%
- 153.250 to 153.49938%
- 153.000 to 153.24928%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 9,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.6%
- SpaceX+0.5pt38.4%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIEURUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- Above 1.14199%
- Above 1.149+3.0pt99%
- Above 1.151+3.0pt98%
+17 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 21,9K €
KALSHIEUR/USD price range on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 1.16400 to 1.1659954.5%
- 1.16200 to 1.1639924.2%
- 1.16600 to 1.167996.1%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 5,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETUSD x Iranian rials End of September?
- 2.2M++10.0pt89.2%
- 2.1-2.2M-6.0pt4.9%
- 2.0-2.1M-2.1pt2%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUSD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes)
- 2.5 to 2.8M+35.0pt50.5%
- 2.2 to 2.5M-37.0pt27.7%
- 2.8 to 3.1M+6.9pt9.9%
+2 altri esiti
- USD x Iranian rials End of December?
- What will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit in September 2026?
- AUDUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDJPY price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDMXN price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDBRL price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDCHF price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDCAD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDNOK price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- GBPUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
- Polymarket quota No al 86% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
- Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.