Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 47.9%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
30
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto26 feb 25, 03:03 UTC31 dic 29, 23:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
This market pertains to the next German federal election, scheduled to occur on or before 25 March 2029.
- This market will resolve to the first Chancellor elected by the Bundestag following the next German federal election.
- If no federal election occurs by 2030, or an election is held but no Chancellor is elected before then, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election??
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 48% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election??
- Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market pertains to the next German federal election, scheduled to occur on or before 25 March 2029.