KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
AfD 77%In testa tra 7 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
18,5K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
28 lug 26, 16:23 UTC25 mar 30, 14:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRegole
If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Bundeswahlausschuss
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option
- This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.
- See full rules for details.
Mercati aperti
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
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- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Next German federal election winner??
- Kalshi quota AfD al 77% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Next German federal election winner??
- Next German federal election winner? dovrebbe risolversi il 25 marzo 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Next German federal election winner??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.