Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 86.4%
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto27 feb 25, 10:06 UTC31 ott 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government?
KalshiNext German federal election winner?
KalshiRegole
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013.
- In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
- This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
- The market resolves to NO if:
- The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
- The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election
