KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 57%
Qualità del mercato
53 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
595,6 €
Liquidità
661,5 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
39.0% / 44.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
24 ago 26, 21:00 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe VergeAgence France-Presse
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.
- The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count A coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Kalshi quota No al 57% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- AfD in a German state government in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dove altro è quotato AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.