Previsione della comunità attuale
No 77.8%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto9 feb 26, 15:14 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government in 2026?
KalshiWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Coalition next split before the next election?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria