Previsione della comunità attuale
No 93.8%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto27 ott 25, 22:27 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsVVD + CDA + D66 coalition forms in Netherlands?
Manifold MarketsWhich Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.
- For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required.
- Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
- The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
