Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
One-OffEuropeElezionePoliticaUS Politics3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 79.5%
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Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
12 feb 25, 09:43 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketRegole
There needs to be a formal coalition, e.g. tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on whether a formal coalition exists.
- Generally, this involves things like a coalition contract and a division of the cabinet positions.
- There are currently six elections planned on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
- Note that coalition here requires at least one other party working with the AfD.
- If the AfD receives an absolute majority in one of the elections and can rule without a coalition, then this also resolves NO.