Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 54%
Previsori
57
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
18 set 25, 10:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsGerman "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)
Manifold MarketsGerman Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level.
- This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority.
- Tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government.
- Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.
- There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026??
- Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level.