Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.9%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
14 set 26, 19:52 UTC30 set 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Jacob Coxon publicly testify before congress by October 31?
PolymarketJacob Coxon Will Appear on the All-In Podcast with the Besties
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRegole
Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…
- Resolves YES if this unambiguously happened (eg someone sending me an email that was clearly meant for Jacob Coxon).
- Resolves 50% if it’s something more marginal / unclear (like if someone misspeaks).
- Resolves NO if I have no evidence this happened by the end of the month.
- I will be excluding any efforts that I suspect were done to manipulate this market.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 87,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 228,5K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 239,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 53,3K €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 92% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…