Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 99.2%
Previsori
46
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
1 giu 26, 13:01 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) officially announces that one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, or officially awards the Millennium Prize for its solution.
- The remaining six eligible problems are:
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture
- Hodge conjecture
- Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness
Mercati aperti
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 57,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 86,7K €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 153,9K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Volume totale
- 286,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 3,5K €
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028??
- Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria