Will post-WWII international orders die before 2050?
One-OffGeopoliticaSalute e medicinaRussia / UcrainaCinaEuropaManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70.4%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto27 set 26, 09:58 UTC31 dic 49, 11:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will post-WWII international orders die before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDid the USA missile sites in Okinawa receive erroneous orders to launch their nuclear missiles during the cold war?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump/US reaches a deal with Denmark to sell Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, at least two of the following four events occur, signaling the definitive collapse ("death") of the post-WWII international order:
- Collapse of the Postwar Security Alliance: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from the treaty.
- Dissolution of the Global Security Body: The United Nations (UN) is formally dissolved, its charter is formally declared null and void, or the UN Security Council permanently ceases to convene or function for a continuous period of at least 365 days.
- Collapse of the Bretton Woods Economic Framework: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are both formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from both institutions.
- Outbreak of Great Power War: A direct, officially declared or internationally recognized interstate military conflict occurs directly between the United States and either China or the Russian Federation, or a direct military conflict occurs between any three of the permanent five (P5) members of the UN Security Council (US, UK, France, Russia, China) simultaneously.