Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 79.1%
Previsori
59
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto18 ago 23, 19:32 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Manifold MarketsDid Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)
Manifold MarketsWill the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.
- Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have been shoddy: https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/ https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated by a court? This question resolved YES if she is released from prison either because a court of jurisdiction has determined her innocent (under any legal standard), or because a court has determined that she can't be held due to flaws in her trial or the evidence presented at her trial, and no new trial is expected to take place.
- This question resolves NO if that has not occurred by Jan 1, 2027.
- (If significant legal proceedings are in progress on that date, this will be extended until they are concluded).
- (For purposes of this question, if a court determines that she is not guilty of intentional murder, but substitutes a lesser charge involving negligence, manslaughter, or medical practice, this does count as exoneration.)
Mercati aperti
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume totale
- 9,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 8,6K €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-5.5pt16%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Volume totale
- 503,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6K €
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.5pt70.3%
- Yes-5.5pt29.7%
- Volume totale
- 353,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 6K €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++2.5pt39.2%
- 20–40+2.8pt10.8%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil17%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+2.0pt15%
+21 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
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- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
- Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by which date?
- Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Lucy Letby be exonerated??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 79% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Lucy Letby be exonerated??
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Lucy Letby be exonerated??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.