Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.3%
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In ritardo25 lug 26, 18:36 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold Marketswill people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative learning, not RL is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
