Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.5%
Previsori
82
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
15 gen 24, 20:46 UTC1 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
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KalshiRegole
A duplicate of @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.
- This market resolves based on the behavior of all leading chatbots at the beginning of 2028.
- (Only ones that can actually be tested.)
- Resolves YES if people can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which any leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
- Only the LLM portion of the chatbot is being tested here.
- Image-recognition and generation capabilities are not.