Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 82.4%
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420
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 21 minuti fa
20 feb 23, 22:38 UTC2 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
- This won't resolve positively if he has to use bizarre hacking-like tricks, for example things equivalent to the SolidGoldMagikarp token.