Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.1%In testa tra 14 esiti
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto8 gen 25, 12:19 UTC31 gen 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
- Manifold Markets quota Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) al 92% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
- Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage dovrebbe risolversi il 31 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.