Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 06:08 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.3%In testa tra 14 esiti
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.3%Previsori
43
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto8 gen 25, 12:19 UTC31 gen 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWill Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegole
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
