Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 90.2%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto7 mar 26, 00:40 UTC28 feb 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.
- Casualties include deaths and injuries.
- The attack must be carried out by Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or entities directly controlled by the Iranian government.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-supported groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) will count as YES if the group states the attack is meant as revenge for Iran.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-funded/directed groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) may count as YES if the attack was funded and directed by Iran.
- Attacks by those groups for other reasons (e.g., related to Gaza) would not count.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027?
- Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 dovrebbe risolversi il 28 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.