Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
GeopoliticaOne-OffMedio OrienteRussia / UcrainaCina
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 85.4%
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto1 feb 25, 16:21 UTC1 gen 00, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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FutuurUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
- Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
- Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
