If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Politica USAOne-OffGeopoliticaMedio Oriente4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 05:41 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 80.7%
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25
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binary
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Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto8 gen 26, 00:14 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
Manifold MarketsWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to hold power by December 31, 2030, AND Reza Pahlavi is the leader of Iran exactly one year after the commonly understood date of the regime's fall.
- The resolution of the linked market (https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO) determines whether the precondition is met.
- Resolves NO if the Islamic Republic falls by 2030 but: (1) anyone other than Pahlavi leads Iran one year post-fall; (2) Pahlavi assumes power but loses it within that one-year window; or (3) Pahlavi assumes power after the one-year deadline has passed.
- Resolves N/A if the Islamic Republic remains in power through 2030.
- Reza Pahlavi is an Iranian politician and dissident, and the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran.