Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 75.5%
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211
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
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Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto16 dic 24, 02:35 UTC1 gen 30, 21:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
Manifold MarketsWill Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026?
FutuurPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if by January 1st 2030, the revolutionary regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran collapses, by international media consensus.
- Of course, death of Ali Khamenei in itself does not count as a regime change.
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
