Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 55.3%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto8 mag 23, 20:32 UTC31 mag 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).
- I appear to be moving at a pace where this seems plausible but research is unpredictable.
- There are also potential reasons why I may try to do a 6th year even if not strictly necessary (funding isn't necessarily guaranteed for a 6th year but can be obtained sometimes).
- Currently though I'd like to graduate in 5 if I can.
- Since my personal decisions can influence this market's outcome significantly, I won't bet on it.
Mercati aperti
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt3%
- September 30+0.1pt0%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 61,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 750,8K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 30,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 30K €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+0.5pt75%
- 2+1.0pt24%
- 3+0.1pt1%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.0pt69%
- No31%
- Volume totale
- 311,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8K €
KALSHIWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- before 2027+17.0pt95%
- before December+20.0pt90%
- before November+30.0pt86%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+2.0pt40%
- Above 1+3.0pt18%
- Above 24%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,9K €
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 55.3% al 23 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting??
- Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 maggio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).