Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 93.9%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 41 minuti fa
21 apr 23, 08:00 UTC1 gen 00, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
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KalshiRegole
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
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+5 altri esiti
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- Yes+1.9pt4%
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- 1,6 Mln €
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- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 94% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2100.
- Come viene liquidato Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.