Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93.9%
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo21 apr 23, 08:00 UTC1 gen 00, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2300?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2400?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"