Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?
Russia / UcrainaOne-OffScienzaSpazioCina3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 06:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 85%
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto23 dic 23, 18:27 UTC1 gen 30, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2029, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, adhering to the following criteria:
- Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be documented in at least one peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of notable academic reputation.
- Relevant fields include astronomy, astrobiology, or similar scientific disciplines.
- Journals such as 'Nature' and 'Science' are prime examples, but other journals of similar standing are also acceptable.
- Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or government bodies.
- These may include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).
