Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030??

Manifold Markets quota No al 85% al 8 ottobre 2026.

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 85%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 ore fa

Obsoleto

23 dic 23, 18:30 UTC1 gen 31, 22:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2030, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, meeting these criteria:

Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in a peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of significant academic standing.
Fields pertinent to this evidence include astronomy and astrobiology, among others.
Journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are ideal, but other journals of comparable standing are also acceptable.
Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies.
Potential agencies include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).